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Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries

David de la Croix () and Paula Gobbi

Journal of Development Economics, 2017, vol. 127, issue C, 13-24

Abstract: Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. We find a causal relationship from population density to fertility such that a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds to a decrease in fertility of about 0.7 children. The corresponding half-life for population dynamics is of the order of four–five generations.

Keywords: Demographic and Health Survey; Fertility; Preventive check; Agglomeration externalities; Population dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 D19 O18 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Related works:
Working Paper: Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries (2017)
Working Paper: Population Density, Fertility and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries (2016) Downloads
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