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Population Density, Fertility and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries

David de la Croix () and Paula Gobbi

No 2016003, Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: Whether the population tends towards a long-run stationary value depends on forces of demographic convergence. One such force is the result of fertility rates being negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such an effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for half a million women with population density grids. When we correct for selection and endogeneity bias and control for the usual determinants of fertility such as education and income, a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds with a decrease in fertility of about 0.6 of a child. Duration analysis reveals that both age at marriage and age at first birth increase with density.

Keywords: Demographic and Health Survey; Preventive check; Agglomeration externalities; Population Dynamics; Marriage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 D19 O18 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-geo, nep-gro and nep-lma
Date: 2016-01-18
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Related works:
Journal Article: Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries (2017)
Working Paper: Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016003

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