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Exposure of belt and road economies to China trade shocks

Paulo Bastos

Journal of Development Economics, 2020, vol. 145, issue C

Abstract: This paper uses international trade data to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks. It finds that the growth of China's trade following its internal transformation and accession to the WTO significantly impacted the export performance of Belt and Road economies in the period 2000-2015. The increase in China's imports significantly boosted the exports of these economies. However, this effect was attenuated by increased competition from China in export markets. The effects of China's demand shocks were stronger in more upstream industries, while those of competition shocks were stronger in industries that produce goods that are closer to final use. The effects of competition shocks were also relatively stronger in countries that are relatively poorer and geographically closer to China. Building on these findings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks.

Keywords: Belt and road initiative; China; Trade shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Exposure of belt and road economies to china trade shocks (2018) Downloads
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102474

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