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Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks

Paulo Bastos

No 2020/0119, Working Papers REM from ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa

Abstract: This paper uses international trade data to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Roadeconomies to China trade shocks. It finds that the growth of China’s trade following its internal transformation and accession to the WTO significantly impacted the export performance ofBelt and Road economies in the period 2000-2015. The increase in China’s imports significantlyboosted the exports of these economies. However, this effect was attenuated by increased compe-tition from China in export markets. The effects of China’s demand shocks were stronger in more upstream industries, while those of competition shocks were stronger in industries that producegoods that are closer to final use. The effects of competition shocks were also relatively stronger in countries that are relatively poorer and geographically closer to China. Building on these find-ings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to Chinatrade shocks.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; China; Trade shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01192020

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