The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates

Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2023, vol. 146, issue C

Abstract: We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.

Keywords: COVID-19; Life expectancy; Mortality; Unemployment rate; Bayesian methods; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 I14 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates (2020)
Working Paper: The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s0165188922002846

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104581

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