The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates

Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song

No 28304, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.

JEL-codes: C32 E32 I14 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Published as Francesco Bianchi & Giada Bianchi & Dongho Song, 2022. "The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, .

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Related works:
Journal Article: The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates (2023)
Working Paper: The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates (2020)
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