Policy change and learning in the RBC model
George Evans () and
Seppo Honkapohja ()
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013, vol. 37, issue 10, 1947-1971
What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.
Keywords: Taxation; Government spending; Expectations; Permanent policy changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 D84 E21 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Working Paper: Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model (2012)
Working Paper: Policy change and learning in the RBC model (2011)
Working Paper: Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:10:p:1947-1971
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