Details about George William Evans
Access statistics for papers by George William Evans.
Last updated 2025-03-14. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pev4
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Working Papers
2022
- Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis
Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham View citations (6)
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) 
See also Journal Article EXPECTATIONS, STAGNATION, AND FISCAL POLICY: A NONLINEAR ANALYSIS, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2022) View citations (5) (2022)
2021
- A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast
Working Papers, University of Sydney, School of Economics View citations (1)
2019
- Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments
Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (11)
See also Journal Article Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (1) (2022)
- Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models
PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL View citations (4)
Also in PSE Working Papers, HAL (2010) View citations (1) University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2010)  Working Papers, HAL (2010) View citations (1) Post-Print, HAL (2019) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
2017
- Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy
2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (8) Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2016) View citations (2)
2016
- Revisiting Coase on anticipations and the cobweb model
Post-Print, HAL
Also in PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL (2016)
See also Chapter Revisiting Coase on anticipations and the cobweb model, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2016) (2016)
2015
- Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics View citations (3)
Also in Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2005) View citations (3) CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2001) View citations (5) University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2005) 
See also Journal Article Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2007) View citations (11) (2007)
2013
- Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model
Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (15)
2012
- Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (5)
Also in SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) (2012)
- Finite Horizon Learning
SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) View citations (15)
Also in University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2010)
- Fiscal Policy and Learning
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2012)  SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) (2012) View citations (9)
- Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (3) Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2012) 
See also Journal Article Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2014) View citations (54) (2014)
- Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2011) 
See also Journal Article Policy change and learning in the RBC model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2013) View citations (19) (2013)
2011
- Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (16)
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2011)
- Notes on Agents’ Behavioral Rules Under Adaptive Learning and Studies of Monetary Policy
SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) View citations (17)
- The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy
SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) View citations (1)
Also in University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2010)
2010
- Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (5)
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2010)  SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) (2010) View citations (6) University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2010) 
See also Journal Article Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2012) View citations (29) (2012)
- Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2009)  CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (4)
- Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes
SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) View citations (6)
Also in University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2011) View citations (109) (2011)
- Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) (2010) View citations (14)
See also Journal Article Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations, Economic Theory, Springer (2011) View citations (37) (2011)
2009
- A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance
SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) View citations (1)
Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article A MODEL OF NEAR-RATIONAL EXUBERANCE, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2010) View citations (18) (2010)
2008
- Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (5) Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2007) View citations (11)
See also Journal Article Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (54) (2009)
- Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (25)
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2007) View citations (1) SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) (2008) View citations (21) Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2008) View citations (22)
See also Chapter Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2009) View citations (19) (2009)
- Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department View citations (1)
Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2005) View citations (16) Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2005) View citations (19) NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2005) View citations (17)
See also Journal Article GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC GRADIENT LEARNING, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2010) View citations (36) (2010)
- Learning and Macroeconomics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Learning and Macroeconomics, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2009) View citations (67) (2009)
- Representations and Sunspot Stability
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article REPRESENTATIONS AND SUNSPOT STABILITY, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2011) View citations (9) (2011)
- Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules
CDMA Conference Paper Series, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis 
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2007) View citations (1) Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2008) View citations (1) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) 
See also Chapter Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2009) View citations (12) (2009)
2007
- Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (20)
Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2007) View citations (41) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (11) University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2007) 
See also Journal Article Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2008) View citations (66) (2008)
- Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2006) View citations (3) Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2004) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2009) View citations (21) (2009)
- Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap
IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan 
See also Journal Article Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap, Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (2008) (2008)
- Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance
Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2008) View citations (27) (2008)
- Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (17) Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2002) 
See also Journal Article POLICY INTERACTION, LEARNING, AND THE FISCAL THEORY OF PRICES, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2007) View citations (19) (2007)
2006
- Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2006) View citations (3)
- Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (69) (2008)
- Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2010) View citations (4) (2010)
- Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (9)
See also Journal Article Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2007) View citations (71) (2007)
- Near-Rational Exuberance
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004)  Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2005) View citations (4) 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2004) Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2005) View citations (10)
- Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004)
See also Journal Article Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2007) View citations (13) (2007)
- Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department
2005
- A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article A simple recursive forecasting model, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2006) View citations (192) (2006)
- An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (38)
Also in University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2005)
- Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable?
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department
- Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Post-Print, HAL (2005) View citations (17) DELTA Working Papers, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure) (2003) 
See also Journal Article Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models, Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier (2005) View citations (26) (2005)
- Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2005) View citations (12) (2005)
- Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (22) Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2002) View citations (12) University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2004) 
See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment*, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2006) View citations (130) (2006)
- The E-correspondence Principle
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2004) 
See also Journal Article The E‐Correspondence Principle, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
2004
- "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego (2001) View citations (12)
See also Journal Article Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2006) View citations (75) (2006)
- Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2002) View citations (1) Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004) View citations (5) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2003) View citations (150)
See also Journal Article Adaptive learning and monetary policy design, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2003) View citations (147) (2003)
- Friedman’s money supply rule vs optimal interest rate policy
Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany 
Also in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2003) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society (2003) View citations (35) (2003)
- Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics (2003) View citations (5)
See also Journal Article Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation, Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier (2006) View citations (160) (2006)
- Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia, Economics Letters, Elsevier (2005) View citations (12) (2005)
- Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (7)
See also Journal Article Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2005) View citations (69) (2005)
- Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2003) View citations (5) Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004) View citations (1) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2003) View citations (4) Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland (2003) 
See also Journal Article Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2005) View citations (40) (2005)
2003
- Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo 
Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (4)
- Comment on "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy" by Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department
- Freidman's Money Supply Rule versus Optimal Interest Rate Policy
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (18)
Also in University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department (2003)
- Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2005) View citations (32) (2005)
2002
- Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2001) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state, Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier (2003) View citations (15) (2003)
- Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2003) View citations (22) (2003)
- Stable Noisy K-state Markov Sunspots
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department
2001
- Coordination on saddle path solutions: the eductive viewpoint
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department
- Expectational Stability of Resonant Frequency Sunspot Equilibria
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
- Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2001) View citations (21) University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Department of Economics (2000) View citations (6) Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2000) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2003) View citations (216) (2003)
1999
- Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint. 1- Linear Univariate Models
Working Papers, Laval - Laboratoire Econometrie
Also in DELTA Working Papers, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure) (1999)
See also Journal Article COORDINATION ON SADDLE-PATH SOLUTIONS: THE EDUCTIVE VIEWPOINT—LINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2003) View citations (20) (2003)
1998
- Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model
University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Department of Economics View citations (17)
See also Journal Article Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model, Economics Letters, Elsevier (1998) View citations (20) (1998)
1996
- Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (23)
See also Journal Article CONVERGENCE IN MONETARY INFLATION MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS LEARNING RULES, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2001) View citations (66) (2001)
- Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Convergence of learning algorithms without a projection facility, Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier (1998) View citations (14) (1998)
- Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results
CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (2)
Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 1997, Society for Computational Economics View citations (57)
See also Journal Article Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (1998) View citations (71) (1998)
- Growth Cycles
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
Also in Home Pages, Stanford University View citations (1)
See also Journal Article Growth Cycles, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1998) View citations (92) (1998)
1994
- Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle
ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles View citations (53)
Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (1993) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1994) View citations (53) (1994)
1993
- Adaptive Forecasts
CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE View citations (6)
1992
- Adaptive Learning and Expectational Stability: An Introduction - (Now published as Ch.4 in 'Learning Rationality in Economics', A Kirman and M Salmon (eds), 1995, Basil Blackwell, Oxford), pp.102-126.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE View citations (2)
- Information
CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE View citations (3)
- Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models - (Now published in 'Econometrica', vol.63 (1995), pp.195-206.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
- On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria Under Adaptive Learning Rules - (Now published in 'Journal of Economic Theory', vol.64 (1994), pp.142-161.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
- Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability
DELTA Working Papers, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure)
See also Journal Article Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability, Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier (1993) View citations (47) (1993)
- Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability (Now published in Games and Economic Behavior, Special Issue on Learning Dynamics, vol.5 (Oct. 1993), pp.632-646).)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
1991
- On the Preservation of Deterministic Cycles when some Agents Perceive them to be Random Fluctuations (Now published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.17 (1993), pp.705-721.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
1990
- Learning, Convergence, and Stability with Multiple Rational Expectations Equilibria - (Now published in 'European Economic Review', vol.38 (1994), pp.1071-1098.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
1989
- Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics (Now published in American Economic Review, (March 1992).)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
- On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models (Now published in International Economic Review, vol.33, No.1 (1992), pp.1-14.)
STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE
1988
- Calculation Equilibria
Working Papers, Stanford - Institute for Thoretical Economics
Undated
- Asset Return Dynamics and Learning
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 
See also Journal Article Asset Return Dynamics and Learning, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2010) View citations (62) (2010)
Journal Articles
2025
- Social learning and expectational stability
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2025, 172, (C)
2022
- Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 132, (C), 44-63 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments, Staff Working Papers (2019) View citations (11) (2019)
- Bounded rationality and unemployment dynamics
Economics Letters, 2022, 210, (C)
- EXPECTATIONS, STAGNATION, AND FISCAL POLICY: A NONLINEAR ANALYSIS
International Economic Review, 2022, 63, (3), 1397-1425 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis, Discussion Papers (2022) View citations (6) (2022)
- The RPEs of RBCs and other DSGEs
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, 143, (C) View citations (2)
2021
- Learning when to say no
Journal of Economic Theory, 2021, 194, (C) View citations (2)
- Theories of Learning and Economic Policy
Revue d'économie politique, 2021, 131, (3), 583-608
2020
- Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2020, 110, (C) View citations (1)
- Equilibrium stability in a nonlinear cobweb model
Economics Letters, 2020, 193, (C) View citations (3)
- Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria
Journal of Economic Theory, 2020, 186, (C) View citations (4)
2019
- Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models
The Economic Journal, 2019, 129, (618), 821-852 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models, PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
- FISCAL POLICY MULTIPLIERS IN AN RBC MODEL WITH LEARNING
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019, 23, (1), 240-283 View citations (10)
2018
- Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, 98, (C), 1-10 View citations (16)
- Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (5), 939-965 View citations (22)
2017
- Unstable Inflation Targets
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, 49, (4), 767-806 View citations (12)
2014
- Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 45, (C), 220-238 View citations (54)
See also Working Paper Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?, NBER Working Papers (2012) View citations (3) (2012)
2013
- Bubbles, crashes and risk
Economics Letters, 2013, 120, (2), 254-258 View citations (6)
- E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model
Economics Letters, 2013, 118, (2), 407-410 View citations (1)
- Policy change and learning in the RBC model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013, 37, (10), 1947-1971 View citations (19)
See also Working Paper Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) (2012)
2012
- Comment
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2012, 26, (1), 61 - 71
- Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, (7), 1259-1283 View citations (29)
Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, (7), 1259-1283 (2012) View citations (6)
See also Working Paper Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (5) (2010)
2011
- Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (3), 159-91 View citations (109)
See also Working Paper Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes, SIRE Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (6) (2010)
- Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations
Economic Theory, 2011, 47, (2), 365-393 View citations (37)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2010) (2010)
- REPRESENTATIONS AND SUNSPOT STABILITY
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (1), 80-92 View citations (9)
See also Working Paper Representations and Sunspot Stability, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2008) (2008)
2010
- A MODEL OF NEAR-RATIONAL EXUBERANCE
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010, 14, (2), 166-188 View citations (18)
See also Working Paper A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance, SIRE Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (1) (2009)
- Asset Return Dynamics and Learning
The Review of Financial Studies, 2010, 23, (4), 1651-1680 View citations (62)
See also Working Paper Asset Return Dynamics and Learning, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
- Corrigendum: Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2010, 112, (3), 640-641 View citations (2)
- GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC GRADIENT LEARNING
International Economic Review, 2010, 51, (1), 237-262 View citations (36)
See also Working Paper Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)
- Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010, 10, (1), 25 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2006) (2006)
2009
- Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009, 56, (7), 930-953 View citations (54)
See also Working Paper Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2008) (2008)
- Learning and Macroeconomics
Annual Review of Economics, 2009, 1, (1), 421-451 View citations (67)
See also Working Paper Learning and Macroeconomics, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2008) (2008)
- Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention and the Volatility Trade-off
Economic Journal, 2009, 119, (534), 123-157 View citations (21)
Also in Economic Journal, 2009, 119, (534), 123-157 (2009) View citations (14)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2007) (2007)
2008
- Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (3), 477-490 View citations (69)
See also Working Paper Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2006) View citations (1) (2006)
- Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation
European Economic Review, 2008, 52, (8), 1438-1463 View citations (66)
See also Working Paper Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation, Kiel Working Papers (2007) View citations (20) (2007)
- Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance
American Economic Review, 2008, 98, (3), 1163-77 View citations (27)
See also Working Paper Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance, Working Papers (2007) View citations (6) (2007)
- Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap
Monetary and Economic Studies, 2008, 26, 59-86 
See also Working Paper Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap, IMES Discussion Paper Series (2007) (2007)
2007
- Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2007, 10, (2), 207-237 View citations (71)
See also Working Paper Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2006) (2006)
- Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (6), 1335-1356 View citations (13)
Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39, (6), 1335-1356 (2007) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2006) (2006)
- POLICY INTERACTION, LEARNING, AND THE FISCAL THEORY OF PRICES
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2007, 11, (5), 665-690 View citations (19)
See also Working Paper Policy Interaction, Learning and the Fiscal Theory of Prices, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2007) (2007)
- Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 38 View citations (11)
See also Working Paper Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy, Working Papers (2015) View citations (3) (2015)
- The E‐Correspondence Principle
Economica, 2007, 74, (293), 33-50 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper The E-correspondence Principle, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2005) (2005)
2006
- A simple recursive forecasting model
Economics Letters, 2006, 91, (2), 158-166 View citations (192)
See also Working Paper A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2005) (2005)
- Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, 53, (2), 249-264 View citations (75)
See also Working Paper "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- Are hyperinflation paths learnable?
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, 30, (12), 2725-2748 View citations (37)
- Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation
Journal of Economic Theory, 2006, 127, (1), 264-295 View citations (160)
See also Working Paper Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment*
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2006, 108, (1), 15-38 View citations (130)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2005) (2005)
2005
- Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models
Journal of Economic Theory, 2005, 124, (2), 202-229 View citations (26)
See also Working Paper Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2005) (2005)
- Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2005, 5, (1), 46 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2005) (2005)
- Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia
Economics Letters, 2005, 87, (1), 1-7 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1809-1840 View citations (69)
See also Working Paper Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 303-323 View citations (40)
See also Working Paper Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (4), 601-625 View citations (32)
See also Working Paper Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2003) (2003)
- The design of monetary and fiscal policy: a global perspective - comments
Proceedings, 2005 View citations (4)
2003
- Adaptive learning and monetary policy design
Proceedings, 2003, 1045-1084 View citations (147)
See also Working Paper Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2004) (2004)
- COORDINATION ON SADDLE-PATH SOLUTIONS: THE EDUCTIVE VIEWPOINT—LINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003, 7, (1), 42-62 View citations (20)
See also Working Paper Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint. 1- Linear Univariate Models, Working Papers (1999) (1999)
- Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state
Journal of Economic Theory, 2003, 111, (1), 125-134 View citations (15)
See also Working Paper Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2002) (2002)
- Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, 28, (1), 171-181 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2002) (2002)
- Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies
The Review of Economic Studies, 2003, 70, (4), 807-824 View citations (216)
See also Working Paper Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies, University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers (2001) (2001)
- Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 50, (5), 550-566 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper Friedman’s money supply rule vs optimal interest rate policy, Macroeconomics (2004) (2004)
2001
- CONVERGENCE IN MONETARY INFLATION MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS LEARNING RULES
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2001, 5, (1), 1-31 View citations (66)
See also Working Paper Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules, CEPR Discussion Papers (1996) View citations (23) (1996)
- Expectations in Macroeconomics Adaptive versus Eductive Learning
Revue économique, 2001, 52, (3), 573-582 View citations (281)
Also in Revue Économique, 2001, 52, (3), 573-582 (2001) View citations (280)
2000
- Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time-dependence, with applications to adaptive learning
Economic Theory, 2000, 15, (3), 717-725 View citations (9)
1998
- CALCULATION, ADAPTATION AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1998, 2, (2), 156-182 View citations (21)
- Convergence of learning algorithms without a projection facility
Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1998, 30, (1), 59-86 View citations (14)
See also Working Paper Convergence of Learning Algorithms without a Projection Facility, CESifo Working Paper Series (1996) View citations (1) (1996)
- Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results
The Review of Economic Studies, 1998, 65, (1), 23-44 View citations (71)
See also Working Paper Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results, CESifo Working Paper Series (1996) View citations (2) (1996)
- Growth Cycles
American Economic Review, 1998, 88, (3), 495-515 View citations (92)
See also Working Paper Growth Cycles, NBER Working Papers (1996) View citations (4) (1996)
- Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model
Economics Letters, 1998, 61, (3), 333-337 View citations (20)
See also Working Paper Stochastic Gradient Learning in the Cobweb Model, University of Helsinki, Department of Economics (1998) View citations (17) (1998)
1996
- Least squares learning with heterogeneous expectations
Economics Letters, 1996, 53, (2), 197-201 View citations (18)
1995
- Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models
Econometrica, 1995, 63, (1), 195-206 View citations (51)
1994
- Convergence of least squares learning to a non-stationary equilibrium
Economics Letters, 1994, 46, (2), 131-136 View citations (3)
- Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, 33, (2), 233-254 View citations (53)
See also Working Paper Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle, ULB Institutional Repository (1994) View citations (53) (1994)
- Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria
European Economic Review, 1994, 38, (5), 1071-1098 View citations (37)
- On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules
Journal of Economic Theory, 1994, 64, (1), 142-161 View citations (47)
1993
- Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations
Economic Review, 1993, 3-13 View citations (27)
- Learning and economic fluctuations: Using fiscal policy to steer expectations
European Economic Review, 1993, 37, (2-3), 595-602 View citations (3)
- On the preservation of deterministic cycles when some agents perceive them to be random fluctuations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1993, 17, (5-6), 705-721 View citations (15)
- Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability
Games and Economic Behavior, 1993, 5, (4), 632-646 View citations (47)
See also Working Paper Rationalizability, Strong Rationality and Expectational Stability, DELTA Working Papers (1992) (1992)
- Sectoral Imbalance and Unemployment in the United Kingdom: 1963-84
Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 45, (3), 440-56 View citations (4)
1992
- Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics
American Economic Review, 1992, 82, (1), 207-24 View citations (98)
- On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models
International Economic Review, 1992, 33, (1), 1-14 View citations (35)
1991
- Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices
American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (4), 922-30 View citations (421)
1989
- A measure of the U.S. output gap
Economics Letters, 1989, 29, (4), 285-289 View citations (10)
- Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1989, 4, (3), 213-37 View citations (59)
- The Conduct of Monetary Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Note
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1989, 21, (4), 498-507 View citations (2)
- The fragility of sunspots and bubbles
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 23, (2), 297-317 View citations (50)
1987
- The structure of ARMA solutions to a general linear model with rational expectations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1987, 11, (1), 79-91
1986
- A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models
The Review of Economic Studies, 1986, 53, (2), 227-239 View citations (18)
- A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84
American Economic Review, 1986, 76, (4), 621-36 View citations (53)
- Selection criteria for models with non-uniqueness
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1986, 18, (2), 147-157 View citations (46)
1985
- Bottlenecks and the Phillips Curve: A Disaggregated Keynesian Model of Inflation, Output, and Unemployment
Economic Journal, 1985, 95, (378), 345-57 View citations (11)
- Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1985, 100, (4), 1217-1233 View citations (89)
1984
- Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1984, 46, (1), 1-19 View citations (20)
Chapters
2016
- Revisiting Coase on anticipations and the cobweb model
Chapter 5 in The Elgar Companion to Ronald H. Coase, 2016, pp 51-67 
See also Working Paper Revisiting Coase on anticipations and the cobweb model, HAL (2016) (2016)
2011
- Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"
A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, 2011, pp 61-71 View citations (2)
2009
- Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research
Chapter 2 in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, 2009, vol. 13, pp 027-076 View citations (19)
See also Working Paper Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (25) (2008)
- Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules
Chapter 5 in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, 2009, vol. 13, pp 145-170 View citations (12)
See also Working Paper Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis (2008) (2008)
1999
- Learning dynamics
Chapter 07 in Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, vol. 1, Part A, pp 449-542 View citations (83)
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