Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning

George Evans

Revue Économique, 2001, vol. 52, issue 3, 573-582

Abstract: [fre] Les anticipations macroéconomiques : l'apprentissage adaptatif et divinatoire. . Les solutions à anticipations rationnelles dans les modèles macroéconomiques décrivent des équilibres qui exigent la coordination des anticipations, et on peut examiner la stabilité locale des ces solutions à la lumière de règles alternatives d'apprentissage. Les approches divinatoires (mentales) à l'apprentissage conduisent à des conditions plus strictes que les approches adaptatives (statistiques) : on illustre cette proposition à l'aide de trois modèles économiques. Le principe de expectational stability clarifie la connexion entre les conditions correspondantes de stabilité. Ce principe éclaire aussi les dynamiques d'apprentissage persistantes qui se produiraient avec des règles modifiées d'apprentissage adaptatif. [eng] Rational expectations solutions to macroeconomic models are equilibria requiring the coordination of expectations, and one can investigate the local stability of these solutions under alternative learning rules. Eductive (mental) approaches to learning have somewhat stricter stability conditions than do adaptive (statistical) approaches, as we illustrate using three economic models. The expectational stability principle can be used to understand the relationship between the corresponding stability conditions. This principle also provides insight into the persistent learning dynamics that can arise under modified adaptive learning rules.

Date: 2001
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410338
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