Stable Noisy K-state Markov Sunspots

George Evans and Bruce McGough ()

University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers from University of Oregon Economics Department

Abstract: We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and consider solutions driven by an extraneous finite state Markov process as well as by the fundamental noise. We obtain conditions for existence of noisy k-state sunspot equilibria (noisy k-SSEs) and, for the case k=2, of noisy k-state dependent sunspot equilibria (noisy k-*SDSs). k-*SDSs are driven by a finite stable sunspot but have an infinite range of values even in the nonstochastic model. Stability under econometric learning is analyzed using representations that nest both types of solution. For the case k=2, we find that noisy 2-SSEs and noisy 2-*SDSs are learnable for parameters in proper subsets of the regions of their existence.

Pages: 44
Date: 2002-07-18, Revised 2002-07-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2002-19

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