Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning

George Evans and Bruce McGough (bmcgough@uoregon.edu)

University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers from University of Oregon Economics Department

Abstract: Forward-looking monetary models with Taylor-type interest rate rules are known to generate indeterminacies, with a potential dependence on extraneous "sunspots," for some structural and policy parameters. We investigate the stability of these solutions under adaptive learning, focusing on "common factor" or "resonant frequency" representations in which the observed sunspot has a suitable time-series structure. We consider specifications incorporating both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; sunspots; expectations; learning; stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48
Date: 2003-10-11, Revised 2004-04-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2003-34_Evans_Monetary_Policy.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning (2005)
Working Paper: Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-34

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