Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research
George Evans () and
Seppo Honkapohja ()
No 2008-03, SIRE Discussion Papers from Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE)
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agentsâ€™ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.
Keywords: Imperfect knowledge; learning; interest-rate setting; fluctuations; stability; determinacy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Chapter: Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research (2009)
Working Paper: Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research (2008)
Working Paper: Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch (2008)
Working Paper: Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research (2008)
Working Paper: Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research (2007)
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