Armed police and violence: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil

Paulo Arvate and André Souza

Economic Modelling, 2022, vol. 111, issue C

Abstract: While governments discuss arming their police, or retaining their armed status, the literature shows no evidence of the effect on violent crimes when the police are armed. Unlike this literature, our work shows that the effect of arming the police is a reduction in violent crimes (homicides and acts of aggression). With data taken from Brazilian municipalities for the period between 2002 and 2012, we estimate the effect that armed police have on violent crime using a quasi-natural experiment: a change in the law that regulates the use of firearms by the municipal police force based on population size. The mechanism that explains the reduction in violent crimes is police effort (incapacitation). We also observe that violent crimes do not increase in municipalities that are neighbors of municipalities in which the police are armed (a deterrence effect).

Keywords: Firearm law; Local police force; Homicides; Acts of aggression; Incapacitation; Deterrence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H75 J18 K14 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:111:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000712

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105825

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