When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

Hachmi Ben Ameur, Xuyuan Han, Zhenya Liu and Jonathan Peillex

Economic Modelling, 2022, vol. 116, issue C

Abstract: The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

Keywords: Global warming; Sustainability; Structural change; Temperature; Stochastic disorder model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002450

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005

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