The impact of public consumption and investment in the euro area during periods of high and normal uncertainty
Pascal Goemans
Economic Modelling, 2023, vol. 126, issue C
Abstract:
The new millennium featured several periods of high uncertainty in which fiscal policy responded as expansionary. The literature focuses heavily on the United States and does not distinguish between different effects of public consumption and investment. We estimate multipliers for both government spending components using local projections and quarterly panel data from 1999 to 2019 for the euro area countries. In times of high economic uncertainty, an increase in public consumption or investment of one euro increases GDP by about one and two euros, but only 0.4 euros in normal episodes. The larger output effect of public consumption during uncertain periods results from additional employment and increased labor income because of higher real wages which raise inflation. Government investment substantially increases GDP through productivity improvements that are partly transferred to workers via higher wages. Due to the positive supply effect, government investment, unlike consumption, is not inflationary.
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Euro area; Uncertainty; Inflation; Local projections; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001827
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323001827
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106370
Access Statistics for this article
Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly
More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().