The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando

Economic Modelling, 2023, vol. 129, issue C

Abstract: The COVID-19 global pandemic has caused significant global economic and social disruption. We use global data on cases and deaths, and public health and economic policy responses to the pandemic, to illustrate the alternative past and potential future trajectories of the pandemic. Shocks to labor and sectoral productivity, consumption, government expenditure, and country and sector risk premia are used within a global multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed, to assess the economic impacts of COVID-19 under those scenarios. We illustrate the vital role of public health responses in managing a pandemic and restoring confidence among economic agents. The role of global coordination amidst a pandemic is also highlighted. We also compare the GDP projections under the alternative scenarios with the actual GDP outcomes in 2020 and 2021. Despite the uncertainties regarding the health outcomes of COVID-19 and the health and economic policy responses to the pandemic, we demonstrate that the actual outcomes lie within those projected for the scenarios.

Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemics; Infectious diseases; Risk; Macroeconomics; DSGE; CGE; G-Cubed (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C54 C55 C68 F41 I10 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:129:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323003632

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106551

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