 The local economic impacts of mega nuclear accident: A synthetic control analysis of FukushimaShanshan Zheng and Derek D. Wang Economic Modelling, 2024, vol. 136, issue C Abstract: The economic impacts of mega accidents are complex, and accurately quantifying these impacts poses a formidable challenge. Traditional methods often fall short in capturing the extensive consequences of such infrequent disasters, which may go beyond immediate damages to include long-term economic disruptions and indirect costs. This study sheds a light on the economic aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Utilizing the synthetic control method (SCM), our analysis reveals a significant, albeit temporary, downturn in the economic performance of the affected region. Specifically, the prefectural per capita income of Fukushima declines by up to 14.4% in the two years following the disaster. This decrease is linked to the composition of Fukushima's GDP and a reduction in labor supply. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of SCM as a potent tool for performing counterfactual analyses of mega accidents, offering essential insights into their economic impacts and the pathways to recovery. Keywords: Nuclear accidents; Mega accidents; Economic impact; Synthetic control; Counterfactual (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:136:y:2024:i:c:s026499932400107x DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106751 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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