 Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflationWon Joong Kim, Juyoung Ko, Won Soon Kwon and Chunyan Piao Economic Modelling, 2025, vol. 143, issue C Abstract: Different crises, such as the GFC, COVID-19 pandemic, and RU-UA war, lead to the common economic consequences: fluctuations in global inflation. In a globalized world, global inflation matters because it also affects the national economy. Although the literature provides determinants of inflation at national and regional levels, no studies have measured global inflation and analyzed its sources of fluctuations during the GFC, COVID-19, and RU-UA war periods. To fill this void, we measure monthly global inflation and estimate its dynamics using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. The results from global data show that global inflation during crisis periods is greatly affected by the monetary and the oil price shocks. Finally, the application to the EMU member countries implies that high EMU inflation rates in recent years were dominantly caused by excessive expansionary monetary policy in the EMU system. Keywords: Global inflation; Time-varying structural vector autoregression; COVID-19; Russia–Ukraine war; EMU (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0264999324003274 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106970 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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