 How demographic changes reshape the housing sector: Evidence from China’s labor allocation and price dynamicsXintong Yang, Jiao Li and Chengdong Yi Economic Modelling, 2025, vol. 151, issue C Abstract: This paper investigates how changes in fertility and mortality rates reshape labor allocation and housing prices, addressing gaps in understanding the structural impacts beyond direct housing demand. While existing literature focuses primarily on demographic influences on housing prices, sectoral labor adjustments remain underexplored. Using panel data from 297 Chinese cities (1999–2019) and an overlapping generations model, we analyze how demographic changes affect the construction and real estate services industries. We find higher fertility rates increase employment in both industries and raise house prices, while lower mortality rates increase employment in real estate services industry. These findings reveal important structural mechanisms: fertility-driven population growth boosts new housing demand, whereas aging from lower mortality shifts labor toward real estate services. Our findings offer novel insights into the general equilibrium channels linking demographic transitions and housing markets, with implications for urban planning and labor market policies in aging economies. Keywords: Demographic changes; Housing sector; OLG general equilibrium model (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001567 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107161 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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