The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle

Gilles Dufrénot () and Sheheryar Malik

Economic Modelling, 2012, vol. 29, issue 5, 1960-1967

Abstract: In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.

Keywords: Business cycles; Leading indicators; Housing; Markov switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E32 G15 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Working Paper: The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1960-1967

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.029

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