 Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysisEconomic Modelling, 2013, vol. 30, issue C, 167-174 Abstract: Although many studies on the directional accuracy of forecasts by international organizations and professional forecasters have been scrutinized, little attention has been paid to forecasts by business leaders. In order to address this gap, we use directional tests to investigate whether forecasts of Gross Domestic Product by corporate executives are valuable to their users. Our findings indicate that all the forecasts with forecast horizons from 1 to 14months are valuable, whereas established literature indicates that longer-term forecasts tend not to be valuable. This suggests that corporate executives are concerned with and focus on longer-term economic environments and can therefore serve as an important resource for policymakers. However, some of the useful forecasts with real-time data, in particular those in the Tankan survey, are not useful with historical data. Keywords: Macroeconomic forecast; Directional analysis; Business survey; Forecast evaluation; Forecast accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:167-174 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.029 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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