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Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?

Paresh Narayan (), Susan Sharma and Deepa Bannigidadmath

Economic Modelling, 2013, vol. 33, issue C, 780-786

Abstract: In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts macroeconomic variables in Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, and Tonga. We form seven panels of PICs — one full panel of six countries and six panels where, one-by-one, each country is excluded from the panel. We apply the Westerlund and Narayan (2012a) panel regression framework, where the null hypothesis is that visitor arrivals do not predict macroeconomic variables, which we proxy with 11 indicators, for panels of countries. We find that visitor arrivals consistently predict exports and money supply, and to a lesser extent, exchange rates and GDP.

Keywords: Tourism; Macroeconomic variables; GDP; Money supply; Panel data; Predictive regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:780-786

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.018

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