Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

Elham Pourazarm and Arusha Cooray

Economic Modelling, 2013, vol. 35, issue C, 546-558

Abstract: This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967–2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.

Keywords: Iran; Residential electricity demand; Economic development; Electrified villages; ARDL; Structural breaks; Short- and long-run price and income elasticities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C51 D12 Q41 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:546-558

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006

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