How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons

Chor Foon Tang, Yew Wah Lai and Ilhan Ozturk

Economic Modelling, 2015, vol. 44, issue C, 229-235

Abstract: This study re-investigates the export-led growth hypothesis for Asia's Four Little Dragons using cointegration and rolling causality analyses. Employing both bivariate (exports and GDP) and trivariate (exports, GDP and exchange rate) models, the study finds that exports and GDP are cointegrated for all the four economies, implying that there is a long run relationship between the variables. However, the rolling regression-based MWALD test shows that export-led growth in each of the four economies is not stable over their respective period of analysis. Instead of export, policymakers should start to search for alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as effectively promote long-term economic growth in the Four Little Dragon economies.

Keywords: Asia's Four Little Dragons; Export-led growth; Rolling MWALD test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:229-235

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.022

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