Modeling expectations in agent-based models — An application to central bank's communication and monetary policy

Isabelle Salle

Economic Modelling, 2015, vol. 46, issue C, 130-141

Abstract: Expectations play a major role in macroeconomic dynamics, especially regarding the conduct of monetary policy. Yet, modeling the interplay between communication, expectations and aggregate outcomes remains a challenging task, mainly because this requires deviation from the paradigm of rational expectations and perfect information. While agent-based macro models allow for such a deviation, their representation of expectations dynamics often remains simplistic. This paper introduces an expectation formation model which allows us to integrate a wide range of information disclosed by central banks. This expectation model is then integrated to the macroeconomic ABM developed in Salle et al. 2013 — [Economic Modelling, 2013, 34, 114–128], and yields aggregate results strongly in line with empirical evidence. In particular, we find that i) opacity is always sub-optimal, giving rise to the so-called opacity bias, ii) communication loosens the trade-off between the two objectives of monetary policy, and iii) forward guidance acts as a partial substitute for policy actions, and softens the optimal policy responses. This expectation model appears therefore promising to develop macroeconomic agent-based models.

Keywords: Expectations; Agent-based modeling; Neural networks; Communication; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:130-141

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.12.040

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