How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?

Mika Kortelainen, Maritta Paloviita () and Matti Viren

Economic Modelling, 2016, vol. 52, issue PB, 540-550

Abstract: This paper examines how measured expectations (survey data) affect the basic properties of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model. In particular, how do survey expectations change the role of persistence of inflation and output (i.e. coefficients of the corresponding lagged terms)? Survey data are modeled in several different ways, to facilitate an analysis of different relationships with rational expectations. The model is estimated by means of a Bayesian estimator from quarterly euro area data using both aggregated and micro level data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for 1999Q1–2012Q3. The broad finding is that the use of measured expectations produces more economically meaningful results than does the standard use of model-consistent rational expectations. In particular, survey expectations also reduce the relative weights of the lagged dependent variables in the Phillips curve and the IS curve. All this shows up in impulse responses that turn out to be quite different suggesting that measured expectations are not only proxies of rational expectations. By contrast, measured expectations are related to rational expectations with a way that may well reflect different adjustment and learning processes.

Keywords: Survey expectations; Inflation; Macro Model; Bayesian estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315002813
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:52:y:2016:i:pb:p:540-550

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.034

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly

More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().