On the dynamics of sovereign debt in China: Sustainability and structural change

Juan Cuestas and Paulo Regis

Economic Modelling, 2018, vol. 68, issue C, 356-359

Abstract: The dynamics of public debt are an important determinant of the macroeconomic environment of an economy and of the investment climate in the private sector. There have been concerns recently about the sustainability of debt in China, given the surge in the fiscal deficit in the last few years that has aided economic activity. This paper aims to shine some light on the dynamics of public debt in the Chinese economy given the risk of a debt crisis, taking nonlinearities and structural breaks into account. Our results show that caution needs to be exercised as there was a clear trend in 2014 towards an unsustainable path in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Keywords: Public debt; Sustainability; Structural breaks; Nonlinearities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317306843
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:356-359

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.003

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly

More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().