Economics at your fingertips  

Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico

Alberto Caruso ()

Economic Modelling, 2018, vol. 69, issue C, 160-168

Abstract: I propose an econometric model to interpret the flow of macroeconomic data releases that are useful to assess the state of the Mexican economy. I estimate the relevance of both Mexican and US indicators for predicting Mexican GDP, using a nowcasting model that can be continuously updated as new data are released. The model produces forecasts that have better accuracy than Surveys of Professional Forecasters, and shows the high relevance of US data in the real-time process of forecast updating. These results encourage a more frequent use of external indicators in short-term GDP forecasting in small open economies.

Keywords: Nowcasting; Dynamic factor model; Macroeconomic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly

More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-11-13
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:160-168