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International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies

Mardi Dungey, Faisal Khan and Mala Raghavan ()

Economic Modelling, 2018, vol. 72, issue C, 109-121

Abstract: We investigate the effects of the increasing importance of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies in global trade for the transmission of shocks using a structural VAR framework. We specifically account for time variation, using the changing trade links to provide a means of identifying the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers across the US, EU and Asia Pacific economies from 1978 to 2015. The results include evidence of China's emergence as a major driver of growth in Asian markets. The identification mechanism highlights the relative importance of changing trade relationships versus changing shocks in propagating shocks between global markets, and shows that the international transmission mechanisms have changed substantially over the sample period.

Keywords: SVAR models; ASEAN; NIE; Trade links (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F41 C32 F62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.008

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