Economics at your fingertips  

ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis

Alistair Dieppe (), Georgios Georgiadis, Martino Ricci (), Ine Van Robays () and Björn van Roye

Economic Modelling, 2018, vol. 72, issue C, 78-98

Abstract: In a highly interlinked global economy a key question is how foreign shocks transmit to the domestic economy, how domestic shocks affect the rest of the world, and how policy actions mitigate or amplify spillovers. For policy analysis in such a context, global multi-country macroeconomic models that allow a structural interpretation are needed. In this paper we introduce the European Central Bank's global macroeconomic model: ECB-Global, a semi-structural, global multi-country model for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies, Emerging Asia and a rest-of-the-world block. ECB-Global features rich channels of international shock propagation through trade, oil prices and global financial markets. We illustrate the range of applications of ECB-Global in the context of policy analysis by presenting its predictions for global spillovers from a US monetary policy tightening, a growth slowdown in China, and a drop in oil prices. In contrast to many existing structural models, ECB-Global implies large spillovers from US monetary policy and oil price shocks, which transmit through trade and financial cross-border interlinkages. Compared to these shocks, ECB-Global does not imply large spillovers from a slowdown in China, primarily because of the latter's still limited integration in global financial markets. We also illustrate how ECB-Global can be modified flexibly in order to address evolving questions relevant for policy makers by adding new features in an ad hoc manner.

Keywords: Macro-modelling; Multi-country models; Spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E30 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: ECB-Global: introducing ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis (2017) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.007

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly

More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2020-02-08
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:78-98