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The financial effects of Trumpism

Huy Pham (), Vikash Ramiah, Nisreen Moosa, Tam Huynh and Nhi Pham

Economic Modelling, 2018, vol. 74, issue C, 264-274

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the 2016 US presidential election, and the events occurring in the run-up to election day, on the US stock market. We examine 47 events, starting with Donald Trump's announcement that he would contest the presidential election, using the event study methodology and asset pricing models. Furthermore, we conduct several robustness tests, including the Corrado ranking test, the non-parametric conditional distribution approach, adjustment for market integration, the removal of firms with firm-specific news, and the use of more than one asset pricing model. We observe that the US stock market was affected by the 2016 presidential election and that the US stock market was highly responsive when Trump secured the Republican nomination. The life insurance sector was one of the most negatively affected sectors due to Trump's intention to replace Obamacare. In addition, our results show that the events around the most recent election can lead to diamond risk structures.

Keywords: Presidential election; Event study; Abnormal returns; Diamond risk structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G14 G19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.020

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