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Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates*

Irena Raguž Krištić, Lucija Rogić Dumančić and Vladimir Arčabić ()

Economic Modelling, 2019, vol. 76, issue C, 192-198

Abstract: This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.

Keywords: Unemployment; Euro area; Hysteresis; Stochastic convergence; Unit root; Structural breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 F45 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.032

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