Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation
Carlos Garcimartín and
Economic Modelling, 2020, vol. 89, issue C, 232-244
•The dynamics of the BOP constrained growth model are analyzed.•Future growth is forecasted by means of a long-run component consistent with external equilibrium and a cyclical term.•Whenever the cyclical term, driven by current account deficits, is substantial, it conditions future growth rates.•Our findings are in sharp contrast with the predictions of forward-looking rational expectations models.
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