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Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation

Virmantas Kvedaras, Carlos Garcimartín and Jhonatan Astudillo

Economic Modelling, 2020, vol. 89, issue C, 232-244

Abstract: •The dynamics of the BOP constrained growth model are analyzed.•Future growth is forecasted by means of a long-run component consistent with external equilibrium and a cyclical term.•Whenever the cyclical term, driven by current account deficits, is substantial, it conditions future growth rates.•Our findings are in sharp contrast with the predictions of forward-looking rational expectations models.

Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:232-244

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.026

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