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Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU

Piero Esposito () and Marcello Messori

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, vol. 47, issue C, 147-167

Abstract: This paper assesses the long-run sustainability of rebalancing in trade positions within the Eurozone by looking at the impact of prices and Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) for core and peripheral countries. We estimate import demand and export supply functions and we decompose Real Effective Exchange Rates to separate the dynamics of the ULC elements – wages and labor productivity – and of consumer prices from those of nominal exchange rates. The rebalances of peripheral countries mainly resulted from the effect of domestic demand and inflation on imports, the persistence of these rebalances from that of international demand and wages on exports. Productivity plays a major role only in core countries. It follows that European adjustments are fragile.

Keywords: EMU; Imbalances; Trade; Panel data; Competitiveness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 F15 F32 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.12.006

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:147-167