The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk

Alin Marius Andrieș, Steven Ongena and Nicu Sprincean

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021, vol. 58, issue C

Abstract: Governments around the world are tackling the COVID-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, and/or market-based policies. We assess the impact of the pandemic in Europe on sovereign CDS spreads using an event study methodology. We find that a higher number of cases and deaths and public health containment responses significantly increase the uncertainty among investors in European government bonds. Other governmental policies magnify the effect in the short run as supply chains are disrupted. Moreover, an increased debt-to-GDP ratio significantly boosts the cumulative abnormal change of CDS spreads, which indicates that investors are concerned about countries that are too indebted and thus have a limited capacity to intervene and provide fiscal stimuli and emergency fiscal packages to businesses and households.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Country risk; Sovereign bonds; Public health interventions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G14 G18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001431

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101527

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