When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel

Jonas Dovern

Economics Letters, 2013, vol. 120, issue 3, 521-524

Abstract: Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions. I find that each month on average 40%–50% of forecasters revise their forecasts. In addition, I find that the likelihood of forecast revisions significantly depends on a number of factors such as the forecast horizon, the business-cycle, or strategic interactions between forecasters. My results suggest that a realistic modeling of expectations/forecasts of agents has to take into account cross-sectional heterogeneity, strategic interaction between agents, and effects of the economic environment—features that existing models such as the sticky information framework are missing.

Keywords: Forecast revision; GDP forecast; Expectation; Sticky information; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 D84 E27 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:120:y:2013:i:3:p:521-524

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.007

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