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Details about Jonas Dovern

E-mail:
Homepage:https://www.statistik.rw.fau.de/lehrstuhl/mitarbeiter/prof-dr-jonas-dovern/
Phone:+49 911 5302-290
Postal address:Lange Gasse 20 90403 Nürnberg Germany
Workplace:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät (Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences), Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Jonas Dovern.

Last updated 2019-08-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pdo155


Jump to Journal Articles

Working Papers

2019

  1. Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich Downloads

2018

  1. Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich Downloads
    Also in Graz Economics Papers, University of Graz, Department of Economics (2018) Downloads

2017

  1. Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output
    Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen
    IfW-Box, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  3. The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants
    Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (1)
  4. The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank Downloads View citations (6)

2016

  1. Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios
    Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Downloads
    Also in Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2016) Downloads

    See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (2017)
  2. Herausforderung Climate Engineering: Bewertung neuer Optionen für den Klimaschutz
    Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  3. Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  4. Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts
    Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Downloads
  5. Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts
    Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads

2015

  1. Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR
    Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics (2015) Downloads View citations (5)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2016)
  2. Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Multivariate Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR
    Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Global Prediction of Recessions
    Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2015)
  4. Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the EU
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  5. Radiation Management: Gezielte Beeinflussung des globalen Strahlungshaushalts zur Kontrolle des anthropogenen Klimawandels
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  6. Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)

2014

  1. A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with SPF Data
    Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (4)
  2. INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2014) Downloads View citations (7)

    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2015)

2013

  1. Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel
    Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2013) Downloads View citations (3)
  2. International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (13)
  3. The rich, the clean, and the kind - a comprehensive wealth index for cities applied to the case of Germany
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)

2012

  1. Nachhaltigkeitspotenzial deutscher Städte
    Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
    Also in Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) (2012) Downloads

2010

  1. Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  2. Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2010
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Deutschland: Konjunkturelle Erholung setzt sich in verlangsamtem Tempo fort - Gefahr eines Rückschlags durch die Schuldenkrise
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  4. Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (11)
  5. Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  6. Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  7. Schwache Konjunktur im Euroraum: Nur langsamer Abbau der Ungleichgewichte
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  8. Schwellenländer tragen die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  9. Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2010
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (7)
  10. Weltkonjunktur kommt nach kräftiger Erholung in schwierigeres Fahrwasser
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  11. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2010
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  12. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)

2009

  1. Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7
    Jena Economic Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
  2. Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  3. Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  4. Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995 -2005
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economics (2009)
  5. Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (10)
  6. Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics Downloads View citations (14)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2009) Downloads View citations (30)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
  7. Estimating the shape of economic crises under heterogeneity
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  8. Konjunktureinbruch im Euroraum
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  9. Schleppende Erholung der Konjunktur in Deutschland, kein Einbruch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  10. Ursachen der Wachstumsschwäche in Deutschland 1995-2005
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) (2009) Downloads View citations (1)
  11. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (5)
  12. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2009
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  13. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2009
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  14. What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model
    Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Economic Policy (2010)

2008

  1. Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (7)
  2. Deutlich verlangsamte Expansion der Weltwirtschaft
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  3. Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (6)
  4. Deutschland: Robuste Binnenkonjunktur - Dämpfer aus dem Ausland
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  5. Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2008) Downloads View citations (4)
  6. Euroraum in der Rezession
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  7. How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2010)
  8. Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (7)
  9. Konjunktur in Deutschland schwächt sich deutlich ab
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  10. Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) (2008)
  11. Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank Downloads View citations (25)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2006) Downloads View citations (11)
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2006) Downloads View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2008)
  12. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2008
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  13. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  14. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2008
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  15. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  16. Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)

2007

  1. Aufschwung in Deutschland bleibt kräftig
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Aufschwung in Deutschland setzt sich nur wenig verlangsamt fort
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Deutsche Konjunktur: Aufschwungskräfte behalten die Oberhand
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  4. Deutschland: Gegenwind für Konjunktur und Potentialwachstum
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (1)
  5. Lohnanstieg und Konjunktur in Deutschland 2004 - 2008
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  6. Nachlassende konjunkturelle Dynamik im Euroraum ohne Deutschland
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  7. Verbessertes Arbeitsmarktumfeld stärkt Wachstum des Produktionspotentials in Deutschland
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (17)
  8. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2007
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  9. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2007
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (5)
  10. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2007
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  11. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2007
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  12. Weltkonjunktur verliert an Fahrt
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  13. Weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik flaut ab
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads

2006

  1. Aid and growth accelerations: An alternative approach to assess the effectiveness of aid
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Das hohe Leistungsbilanzdefizit der Vereinigten Staaten: Ein Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft und für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland?
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (5)
  3. Gute Chancen auf einen langanhaltenden Aufschwung in Deutschland
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  4. Konjunktur in den Industrieländern bleibt vorerst kräftig
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  5. Konjunktureller Höhepunkt in Deutschland wird überschritten
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads
  6. Kräftiger, aber nur kurzer Aufschwung in Deutschland
    Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  7. Macroeconomic aspects of structural labor market reforms in Germany
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (4)
  8. The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2006) Downloads View citations (21)

    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2008)
  9. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2006
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (3)
  10. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2006
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (9)
  11. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2006
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)
  12. Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2006
    Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Downloads View citations (2)

2005

  1. European inflation expectations dynamics
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank Downloads View citations (30)

Journal Articles

2017

  1. Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios
    Empirical Economics, 2017, 53, (1), 63-77 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  2. Prognosen in verschiedenen Konjunkturphasen
    (Forecasts in Different Business Cycle States)
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2017, 97, (7), 527-528 Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 760-769 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2015)

2016

  1. Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, 70, (C), 86-100 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2015)

2015

  1. A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data
    European Economic Review, 2015, 80, (C), 16-35 Downloads View citations (20)
  2. Global prediction of recessions
    Economics Letters, 2015, 133, (C), 81-84 Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  3. Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 144-154 Downloads View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2014

  1. International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2014, 13, (C), 1-17 Downloads View citations (25)

2013

  1. Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Aufschwung
    Konjunktur aktuell, 2013, 1, (4), 144-177 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Rückkehr des Vertrauens beflügelt Konjunktur in Deutschland
    Konjunktur aktuell, 2013, 1, (2), 55-94 Downloads
  3. When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel
    Economics Letters, 2013, 120, (3), 521-524 Downloads View citations (16)

2012

  1. Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1081-1096 Downloads View citations (150)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
  2. Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (3), 80-113 Downloads
  3. Konjunktur aktuell: Eurokrise nimmt deutscher Konjunktur den Wind aus den Segeln
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (8-9), 228-258 Downloads

2011

  1. Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (2), 452-465 Downloads View citations (72)
    Also in International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (2), 452-465 (2011) Downloads View citations (70)

    See also Working Paper (2009)

2010

  1. How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2010, 34, (8), 1839-1848 Downloads View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?: Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model
    Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2010, 2, (2), 126-148 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2009

  1. Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995–2005
    Review of Economics, 2009, 60, (1), 17-36 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

  1. Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition
    Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), 2008, 54, (4), 293-318 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  2. Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, 40, (7), 1513-1520 Downloads View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
  3. The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008, 8, (1), 1-23 Downloads View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

  1. Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid
    Kyklos, 2007, 60, (3), 359-383 Downloads View citations (24)
  2. Muss das hohe US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit zu einer massiven Aufwertung der europäischen Währungen führen? Eine andere Sicht
    Aussenwirtschaft, 2007, 62, (02), 233-254 Downloads View citations (1)
 
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