Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries
Jonas Dovern (),
Ulrich Fritsche () and
Jiri Slacalek ()
No 1082, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifies strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 percent in terms of the interquartile range). Disagreement about nominal variables rises with their level, has fallen after 1998 or so (by 30 percent), and is considerably lower under independent central banks (by 35 percent). Cross-sectional dispersion for both groups increases with uncertainty about the underlying actual indicators, though to a lesser extent for nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables tend to be larger in Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. These findings suggest that more credible monetary policy can substantially contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52, C53
Keywords: disagreement; forecasting; monetary policy; survey expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries (2012)
Working Paper: Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091082
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().