Details about Ulrich Fritsche

Homepage:	https://sites.google.com/site/ulrichfritsche/
Postal address:	University Hamburg Department Socioeconomics Welckerstr. 8 20354 Hamburg
Workplace:	Fachgebiet Volkswirtschaftlehre (Division of Economics), Fachbereich Sozialökonomie (Department of Socioeconomics), Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg), (more information at EDIRC) Fachbereich Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg), (more information at EDIRC) H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, George Washington University, (more information at EDIRC) KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, Technology and Economics (D-MTEC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ) (Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), (more information at EDIRC)

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Working Papers

2023

1. Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study
   WiSo-HH Working Paper Series, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory
2. The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From forecasts to evaluation and comparison
   IWH Technical Reports, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison, Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter (2024) (2024)
3. Understanding moral narratives as drivers of polarization about genetically engineered crops
   WiSo-HH Working Paper Series, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory

2022

4. New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
   WiSo-HH Working Paper Series, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory
   See also Journal Article New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2025) (2025)

2020

5. Oil Price Shocks, Protest and the Shadow Economyː Is there a Mitigation Effect?
   WiSo-HH Working Paper Series, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory
6. Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques
   Working Papers, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin
   Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2020)

2019

7. Oil Price Shocks and Protest: Can Shadow Economy Mitigate?
   Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (2)

2018

8. Deciphering Professional Forecasters’ Stories - Analyzing a Corpus of Textual Predictions for the German Economy
   Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)
9. Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany
   Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (1)
10. Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters
    VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2017) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters, Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter (2019) View citations (2) (2019)

2017

11. Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
    Working Papers, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2017) View citations (1)
12. Vergleichende Evaluation der Konjunkturprognosen des Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung an der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung für den Zeitraum 2005-2014
    IMK Studies, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (7)

2016

13. Animal Spirits, the Stock Market, and the Unemployment Rate: Some Evidence for German Data
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Animal spirits, the stock market, and the unemployment rate: Some evidence for German data, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2017) View citations (1) (2017)
14. Labor Productivity Slowdown in the Developed Economies. Another Productivity Puzzle?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics

2015

15. Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2017) View citations (45) (2017)
16. Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)
17. Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)

2014

18. Evaluating the Link between Consumers' Savings Portfolio Decisions, their Inflation Expectations and Economic News
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (1)
19. INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (10)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2014) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (59) (2015)

2013

20. Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (1)
21. Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (5)
    Also in VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2013) View citations (3)

2012

22. Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2015) View citations (22) (2015)
23. Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics

2011

24. Inflation Inequality in Europe
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (3)
25. Perceived Inflation under Loss Aversion
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Perceived inflation under loss aversion, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2014) View citations (6) (2014)

2010

26. New Keynesian DSGE Models and the IS-LM Paradigm
    IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute View citations (1)
27. Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany
    EcoMod2004, EcoMod
28. Too Many Cooks? The German Joint Diagnosis and Its Production
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (10)

2009

29. Adjustment in EMU: Is Convergence Assured?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics
    Also in IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (2009)
30. Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (30)
    Also in Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2009) View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2012) View citations (332) (2012)
31. Do Prices in the EMU Converge (Non-linearly)?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (2)
32. Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (4)
    Also in KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich (2009) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function, OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (2010) View citations (27) (2010)
33. Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)
34. The euro and prices: changeover-related inflation and price convergence in the euro area
    European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission View citations (19)

2008

35. Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model, Empirical Economics, Springer (2011) View citations (31) (2011)
36. Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (7)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2008) View citations (7)
37. Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (39)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2006) View citations (12)
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2006) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2008) View citations (14) (2008)
38. Transition Paths to Convergence and Convergence Clusters in EMU: Evidence from a Nonlinear Time-Varying Factor Model Framework
    EcoMod2008, EcoMod

2007

39. Default Option, Risk-Aversion and Household Borrowing Behaviour
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (2)
40. Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-Run Divergence?: Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (5)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2007) View citations (6)
41. The Store-of-Value-Function of Money as a Component of Household Risk Management
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (1)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2006) View citations (1)
42. Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (6)
    Also in Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics (2007) View citations (6)

2006

43. Ergebnisse der ökonometrischen Untersuchung zum Forschungsprojekt Wirtschaftspolitische Regime westlicher Industrienationen
    Working Papers, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB) View citations (11)
44. Forecast errors and the macroeconomy — a non-linear relationship?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2005) View citations (2)
45. How bad is Divergence in the Euro-Zone? Lessons from the United States of America and Germany
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (1)
46. Makroökonomische Bedingungen für die Rückkehr zur Vollbeschäftigung: Plädoyer für einen mehrdimensionalen Ansatz
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics
47. The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2006) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2008) View citations (40) (2008)
48. The New Keynesian Model and the Long-run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does it hold for Germany?
    Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics View citations (5)
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2005) View citations (12)

2005

49. Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of the Monetary Policy
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005, Money Macro and Finance Research Group View citations (7)
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2004) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2005) View citations (7) (2005)
50. Estimating Sticky Information Phillips Curve: International Evidence from the Consensus Survey of Forecasters
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics
51. Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (3)
52. European inflation expectations dynamics
    Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (31)

2004

53. Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (5)

2002

54. Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (7)
55. Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (7)

2001

56. Do Probit Models Help in Forecasting Turning Points in German Business Cycles?
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (6)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2001) View citations (6)
57. Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
    Also in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research (2001) View citations (2)

2000

58. Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (34)
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2000) View citations (20)

1999

59. Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (5)
60. Vorlaufeigenschaften von Ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (16)

Journal Articles

2025

1. New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
   Journal of Forecasting, 2025, 44, (1), 3-40
   See also Working Paper New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises, WiSo-HH Working Paper Series (2022) (2022)

2024

2. The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison
   Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2024, 244, (3), 277-288
   See also Working Paper The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From forecasts to evaluation and comparison, IWH Technical Reports (2023) View citations (2) (2023)

2023

3. Introduction: Digital History
   Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, 2023, 64, (1), 1-7

2022

4. Editorial to the special issue
   European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 2022, 19, (2), 224-226
5. Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions based on text mining techniques
   European Journal of Political Economy, 2022, 75, (C) View citations (2)

2019

6. Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2019, 62, (C) View citations (8)
7. Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters
   Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2019, 239, (2), 203-241 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters, VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy (2018) (2018)

2017

8. Animal spirits, the stock market, and the unemployment rate: Some evidence for German data
   Economics Bulletin, 2017, 37, (1), 204-213 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Animal Spirits, the Stock Market, and the Unemployment Rate: Some Evidence for German Data, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2016) View citations (6) (2016)
9. Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (4), 745-759 View citations (45)
   See also Working Paper Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees, Working Papers (2015) View citations (5) (2015)
10. Schwaches Produktivitätswachstum — zyklisches oder strukturelles Phänomen?
    (Weak Productivity Growth — A Cyclical or Structural Phenomenon?)
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2017, 97, (2), 83-102 View citations (1)
11. The Global Productivity Slowdown: Diagnosis, Causes and Remedies
    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2017, 52, (1), 45-50 View citations (8)

2015

12. Did the ECB Overstep Its Mandate?
    Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2015, 50, (3), 165-170
13. Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 130-139 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
14. Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, (1), 144-154 View citations (59)
    See also Working Paper INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL, Working Papers (2014) View citations (10) (2014)

2014

15. A Note on Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?
    International Economic Journal, 2014, 28, (2), 333-343 View citations (5)
16. Perceived inflation under loss aversion
    Applied Economics, 2014, 46, (3), 282-293 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Perceived Inflation under Loss Aversion, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2011) View citations (4) (2011)

2013

17. On the directional accuracy of survey forecasts: the case of gold and silver
    Applied Economics Letters, 2013, 20, (12), 1127-1129 View citations (6)

2012

18. Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94, (4), 1081-1096 View citations (332)
    See also Working Paper Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2009) View citations (30) (2009)

2011

19. Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model
    Empirical Economics, 2011, 41, (2), 343-369 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2008) View citations (8) (2008)

2010

20. Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function
    OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2010, 2010, (1), 1-18 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2009) View citations (4) (2009)

2009

21. Divergierende Lohn- und Inflationsentwicklungen im Euroraum: Ursachen und Folgen
    WSI-Mitteilungen, 2009, 62, (9), 474-480 View citations (2)
22. How bad is divergence in the euro zone? Lessons from the United States and Germany
    Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2009, 31, (3), 431-457 View citations (11)
23. Krise, Arbeitsmarkt, Erholung: Was kommt auf uns zu?
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2009, 89, (12), 778-779 View citations (1)
24. Productivity Growth in Germany: No Sustainable Economic Recovery in Sight
    Weekly Report, 2009, 5, (3), 19-25 View citations (5)

2008

25. Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?
    International Economics and Economic Policy, 2008, 5, (3), 269-295 View citations (18)
26. Mehr Beschäftigung durch weitere Arbeitsmarktreformen?
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2008, 88, (7), 451-460
27. Produktivitätswachstum in Deutschland: kein nachhaltiger Aufschwung in Sicht
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2008, 75, (36), 512-519 View citations (1)
28. Shocking! Do forecasters share a common belief?
    Applied Economics Letters, 2008, 15, (5), 355-358 View citations (3)
29. Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, 40, (7), 1513-1520 View citations (14)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008, 40, (7), 1513-1520 (2008) View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence, Working Paper Series (2008) View citations (39) (2008)
30. The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2008, 8, (1), 23 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations, Macroeconomics and Finance Series (2006) View citations (5) (2006)

2007

31. Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2007, 76, (4), 56-76 View citations (3)
32. Anhaltende Divergenz der Lohnstückkostenentwicklung im Euroraum problematisch
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2007, 74, (22), 349-357 View citations (2)

2006

33. Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency
    Empirical Economics, 2006, 31, (3), 777-798 View citations (15)
34. Treffgenauigkeit, Rationalität und Streuung von Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2006, 75, (2), 34-53 View citations (2)
35. When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 22, (1), 125-135 View citations (40)

2005

36. Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy
    Applied Economics, 2005, 37, (21), 2445-2457 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of the Monetary Policy, Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 (2005) View citations (7) (2005)
37. Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland
    Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2005, 225, (1), 22-43 View citations (10)
38. Productivity Growth in the United States and Germany: Is Germany Falling Further behind?
    Weekly Report, 2005, 1, (24), 281-287 View citations (2)
39. Produktivitätswachstum in den USA und Deutschland: fällt Deutschland weiter zurück?
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2005, 72, (30), 455-461
40. Warum Konjunkturprognosen?
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2005, 72, (22), 361-369

2004

41. USA: Geschichte einer ungewöhnlichen Rezession
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2004, 71, (15), 177-183
42. Zur Zukunft des Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspaktes
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2004, 73, (3), 343-344

2002

43. Argentinien in der Krise
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2002, 69, (12), 197-204
44. Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften
    Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2002, 222, (3), 289-315 View citations (31)
45. Stabilisierungspolitik in Euroland
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2002, 71, (3), 293-295

2001

46. Business Cycle Research in the European Economic and Monetary Union: An Introduction
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2001, 70, (3), 309-309
47. US-Wirtschaft im Abschwung - Wirtschaftspolitik steuert massiv gegen
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2001, 68, (23), 347-354

2000

48. Ausrüstungs- und Bauinvestitionen in der Europäischen Währungsunion deutlich ausgeweitet
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2000, 67, (13), 180-184
49. Die doppelte Währungsunion: Deutschland und Europa im wirtschaftlichen Integrationsprozess; ein Rückblick und ein Vergleich
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2000, 69, (2), 163-177 View citations (1)
50. Zinserhöhung der EZB: ein vergeblicher Schritt zur Stabilisierung des Euro
    DIW Wochenbericht, 2000, 67, (20), 299-305

1999

51. Konzeptionelle Schwächen von IWF-Stabilisierungsprogrammen im Kontext der Asienkrise
    Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 1999, 68, (1), 110-117 View citations (1)

Books

2005

1. Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht; Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, vol 8
   DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (4)