Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion
Jörg Döpke and
Ulrich Fritsche ()
No 399, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecast-ers. The dispersion of forecasts correlates positively with the volatility of macroeconomic variables. This suggests that forecasters do not behave predominately strategic, but share no common belief on the adequate model of the economy.
Keywords: Forecast error evaluation; Consensus forecast; Disagreement; Uncertainty; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp399
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bibliothek ().