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INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL

Jonas Dovern (), Ulrich Fritsche (), Prakash Loungani () and Natalia Tamirisa ()

No 2014-001, Working Papers from The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting

Abstract: We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.

Keywords: Rational Inattention; Aggregation Bias; Growth Forecasts; Information Rigidity; Forecast Behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2014-01
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https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2014-001.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Information Rigidities; Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel (2014) Downloads
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