On the directional accuracy of survey forecasts: the case of gold and silver

Ulrich Fritsche, Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph R�lke and Georg Stadtmann

Applied Economics Letters, 2013, vol. 20, issue 12, 1127-1129

Abstract: We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the directional accuracy of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast, forecasters have no market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change in the gold price. Combining forecasts of both metal prices to set up a multivariate market-timing test yields no evidence of joint predictability of the directions of change of the prices of gold and silver.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.791014

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