 Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private householdsNo 38, Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin Abstract: Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fuctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. I document that the survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure ofers a very efcient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many diferent expectations at low cost. Keywords: macroeconomic expectations; expectation uncertainty; density expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:pp1859:38 DOI: 10.18452/25859 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.