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Working Papers

From German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin
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34: A mirror to the world. Taking the German news magazine Der Spiegel into a topic modeling/sentiment perspective Downloads
Lino Wehrheim
33: Heterogeneous savers and their inflation expectation during German industrialization: Social class, wealth, and gender Downloads
Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Andreas Neumayer and Jochen Streb
32: Optimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions Downloads
Chi Hyun Kim
31: Turn, turn, turn: A digital history of German historiography, 1950-2019 Downloads
Lino Wehrheim, Tobias Alexander Jopp and Mark Spoerer
30: The sound of silence: On the (in)visibility of economists in the media Downloads
Lino Wehrheim
29: Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news Downloads
Benjamin Born, Jonas Dovern and Zeno Enders
28: Erwartungs(un)sicherheit durch Gerichte Methoden und Chiffren der Justiz Downloads
Lukas Herget and Louis Pahlow
27: Diskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn: Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im "Clio Viewer" Downloads
Lino Wehrheim, Tobias Alexander Jopp and Mark Spoerer
26: German trade forecasts since 1970: An evaluation using the panel dimension Downloads
Christoph Behrens
25: Foreign debt, capital controls, and secondary markets: Theory and evidence from Nazi Germany Downloads
Andrea Papadia and Claudio Schioppa
24: Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques Downloads
Sami Diaf, Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Ida Rockenbach
23: German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports? Downloads
Karsten Müller
22: Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany Downloads
Alexander Foltas and Christian Pierdzioch
21: On the efficiency of German growth forecasts: An empirical analysis using quantile random forests Downloads
Alexander Foltas and Christian Pierdzioch
20: The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations Downloads
Christian Conrad, Zeno Enders and Alexander Glas
19: Testing investment forecast efficiency with textual data Downloads
Alexander Foltas
18: Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending Downloads
Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch
17: Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation Downloads
Stephanie Ettmeier and Alexander Kriwoluzky
16: Keynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression? Downloads
Sebastian Teupe
15: How Do Firms Form Expectations of Aggregate Growth? New Evidence from a Large-scale Business Survey Downloads
Jonas Dovern, Lena Sophia Müller and Klaus Wohlrabe
14: Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations Downloads
Fabian Krüger and Lora Pavlova
13: Bismarck to no Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia Downloads
Timothy Guinnane and Jochen Streb
12: Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo Downloads
Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch
11: China’s Overseas Lending Downloads
Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch
10: Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms Downloads
Zeno Enders, Franziska Hünnekes and Gernot Müller
9: Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach Downloads
Christoph Behrens
8: The persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869 – 1945 Downloads
Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Andreas Neumayer
7: Discrimination against Foreigners. The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice Downloads
Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Jochen Streb
6: Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany Downloads
Volker Daniel and Lucas ter Steege
5: Erfahrung und Erinnerung als Konstituenten von Erwartungen im ökonomischen Kontext Downloads
Birger P. Priddat
4: Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis: A topic modeling approach Downloads
Volker Daniel, Magnus Neubert and Agnes Orban
3: Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period Downloads
Laetitia Lenel
2: Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters Downloads
Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Gaby Waldhof
1: Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance Downloads
Sibylle H. Lehmann-Hasemeyer and Jochen Streb
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