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Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation

Stephanie Ettmeier and Alexander Kriwoluzky

No 17, Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin

Abstract: We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy regime as distinct, separately estimated, models. Rather, SMC enables us to estimate the DSGE model over its entire parameter space. A differentiated perspective results: pre-Volcker macroeconomic dynamics were similarly driven by a passive monetary/passive fiscal policy regime and fiscal dominance. Fiscal policy actions, especially government spending, were critical in the pre-Volcker inflation build-up.

Keywords: Bayesian Analysis; DSGE Models; Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions; MonteCarlo Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C15 E63 E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
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Working Paper: Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation (2019) Downloads
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