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Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations

Fabian Krüger and Lora Pavlova

No 14, Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin

Abstract: Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations (2019) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:pp1859:14

DOI: 10.18452/21401

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