Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations
Fabian Krüger and
Lora Pavlova
No 14, Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin
Abstract:
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/223195/1/SPPWP-14.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Working Paper: Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations (2020) 
Working Paper: Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations (2019) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:pp1859:14
DOI: 10.18452/21401
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().