Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations

Fabian Krüger and Lora Pavlova

No 139, Working Paper Series in Economics from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management

Abstract: Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations (2020)
Working Paper: Quantifying subjective oncertainty in survey expectations (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:kitwps:139

DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000118008

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