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Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios

Matthias Hartmann () and Jonas Dovern ()

VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals' forecast performance: forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly from the average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the Surveys of Professional Forecasters for the US and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts.

JEL-codes: C53 D80 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios (2016) Downloads
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