A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Karim Barhoumi (), Olivier Darné and Laurent Ferrara

Economics Letters, 2016, vol. 146, issue C, 111-115

Abstract: This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on a dynamic factor model estimated on set of leading indicators of world trade activity. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.

Keywords: World trade; Leading indicators; Factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 F17 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: A world trade leading index (WLTI) (2016)
Working Paper: A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:146:y:2016:i:c:p:111-115

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.07.032

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