A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Karim Barhoumi () and Laurent Ferrara

No 2015/020, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.

Keywords: WP; growth rate; World trade; leading indicators; factor models.; CPB index; index tracks trade cycles; WTLI version; World Trade Leading Index factor; Cyclical indicators; Business cycles; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14
Date: 2015-01-26
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) (2016)
Working Paper: A world trade leading index (WLTI) (2016)
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